2/RT/95 - Econometrics and Truth
نویسنده
چکیده
Econometrics and Truth The second half of the sixties was, at first sight, the golden age of econometrics. At the time, it appeared that some minor advances in theory, data and computer facilities would allow us to construct an econometric model which would chart the course to universal prosperity. The seventies were to deal a cruel blow to these extravagant expectations. This rise and fall of econometrics is described in the first section of the paper. In the next two sections we look at some of the advances that have been made in the last twenty years as a response to these problems. Particular attention is paid to spurious regressions and cointegration, and to non-linear methods. A further section of the paper focuses on the use of statistical methods in the search for the truth in economics. These advances in theory would have been of no benefit without the availability of cheap but powerful computer facilities. A description of some of these systems, their limitations and some recommendations on their use are then set out. The paper closes with some comparisons of the meaning of truth in economics and the natural sciences.
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